Saturday, October 18, 2014

Review of October 18, 2014 Picks for Record

Pick-wise this was not a bad week for me, I went 16-15 (about chance) on the picks, but what killed me was my top 5 picks and most of my bankroll going to losing picks. Again and again betting big on losers has been killing me. Having said that, my betting strategy is mathematically sound; so, I might need to adjust my picking algorithm, but all modifications will come after this season. I'm leaving on the horse I came in with. 

LOSS 29 units (17% of bankroll) on UCF -19.5 vs Tulane
LOSS 26 units (15% of bankroll) on Central Michigan -10.0 vs Ball State
LOSS 24 units (14% of bankroll) on Tennessee +16.0 at Mississippi
LOSS 15 units (9% of bankroll) on Florida -6.0 vs Missouri
LOSS 14 units (8% of bankroll) on BYU -11.5 vs Nevada
WIN 14 units (8% of bankroll) on Middle Tennessee +1.0 vs UAB +12.72
WIN 11 units (6% of bankroll) on Massachusetts -14.0 vs Eastern Michigan + 10 units
WIN 11 units (6% of bankroll) on Georgia State +20.5 at South Alabama + 10 units
WIN 9 units (5% of bankroll) on Cincinnati -13.0 vs SMU + 8.18 units
LOSS 6 units (3% of bankroll) on North Texas -9.5 vs Southern Mississippi
WIN 3 units (2% of bankroll) on North Carolina State +18.5 at Louisville +2.72 units
WIN 3 units (2% of bankroll) on California +7.0 vs UCLA +2.72 units
LOSS 2 units (1% of bankroll) on Northwestern +6.5 vs Nebraska
WIN 1 units (1% of bankroll) on Maryland -4.0 vs Iowa +0.91 units

So, I ended up winning 99 units plus the 8 units I did not bet giving me a total of 107 units. This is quickly becoming a cautionary tale against sports betting. My betting algorithm has performed really well in the past seasons. I need to find the time to do the analysis to figure out what is going on this season.

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