Friday, October 31, 2014

Friday, October 31, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks

Happy Halloween!

Picks for 10/31/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Cincinnati-6.5
Tulane+6.557.14%10%5%


Picks for 11/01/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah State-2.5
Hawai'i+2.575.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Virginia+4.0
Georgia Tech-4.071.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UAB+5.060.00%16%8%
Florida Atlantic-5.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Auburn+2.5
Mississippi-2.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Stanford+8.0
Oregon-8.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Northwestern+4.5
Iowa-4.556.67%9%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Georgia State+13.555.26%6%3%
Appalachian State-13.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
East Carolina-7.0
Temple+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rice-7.0
Florida International+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Western Kentucky+7.053.33%2%1%
Louisiana Tech-7.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Washington-3.552.78%1%0%
Colorado+3.5


The above are my algorithmically selected picks based the teams' statistics and the spread, please read my guide to better understand the tables.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Thursday, October 30, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks

Picks for 10/31/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Cincinnati-4.0
Tulane+4.075.00%48%23%

Picks for 11/01/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah State-3.0
Hawai'i+3.075.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Virginia+3.5
Georgia Tech-3.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah+6.0
Arizona State-6.064.00%24%12%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Georgia State+11.062.50%21%10%
Appalachian State-11.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Auburn+2.5
Mississippi-2.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Stanford+7.5
Oregon-7.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Northwestern+4.5
Iowa-4.556.67%9%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
East Carolina-7.0
Temple+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
USC-7.0
Washington State+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Western Kentucky+7.053.33%2%1%
Louisiana Tech-7.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rice-6.052.83%1%0%
Florida International+6.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Washington-3.552.78%1%0%
Colorado+3.5


The above are my algorithmically selected picks based the teams' statistics and the spread, please read my guide to better understand the tables.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Wednesday October 29, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks



The following are my algorithmically selected picks based the teams' statistics and the spread, please read my guide to better understand the tables. This season the picks for spreads more than 7.0 points either plus or minus have been pretty inaccurate but the smaller point values have been pretty good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Picks for 10/31/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Cincinnati-3.5
Tulane+3.575.00%48%23%

Picks for 11/01/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah State-3.0
Hawai'i+3.075.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Virginia+3.5
Georgia Tech-3.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah+5.5
Arizona State-5.564.00%24%12%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Georgia State+10.562.50%21%10%
Appalachian State-10.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Auburn+3.0
Mississippi-3.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Stanford+7.5
Oregon-7.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Northwestern+4.5
Iowa-4.556.67%9%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
East Carolina-7.0
Temple+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
USC-7.0
Washington State+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Western Kentucky+7.053.33%2%1%
Louisiana Tech-7.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rice-6.052.83%1%0%
Florida International+6.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Washington-3.552.78%1%0%
Colorado+3.5

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Tuesday October 28, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks

Picks for 11/01/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah State-2.5
Hawai'i+2.575.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Western Kentucky+6.0
Louisiana Tech-6.071.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Virginia+3.5
Georgia Tech-3.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Stanford+9.5
Oregon-9.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah+4.560.00%16%8%
Arizona State-4.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
East Carolina-7.5
Temple+7.557.50%11%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Auburn+2.5
Mississippi-2.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Northwestern+4.5
Iowa-4.556.67%9%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
USC-7.0
Washington State+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rice-6.052.83%1%0%
Florida International+6.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Washington-4.052.78%1%0%
Colorado+4.0

Monday, October 27, 2014

Monday October 27, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks

Picks for 11/01/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah State-2.075.00%48%23%
Hawai'i+2.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Western Kentucky+5.5   
Louisiana Tech-5.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Virginia+4.0   
Georgia Tech-4.071.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Utah+4.560.00%16%8%
Arizona State-4.5   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
East Carolina-7.5   
Temple+7.557.50%11%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
USC-7.5   
Washington State+7.557.50%11%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Auburn+3.0   
Mississippi-3.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Northwestern+5.0   
Iowa-5.056.67%9%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rice-7.0   
Florida International+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Washington-5.5   
Colorado+5.553.85%3%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Georgia State+7.053.33%2%1%
Appalachian State-7.0   

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Review of October 25, 2014 Picks for Record

Another week where my top picks tanked and thus killing my winnings. Based on my picks I went from 108 units to 59 units.

LOSS 17 units (16% of bankroll) Washington +3.5 vs Arizona State with 75.00% prob
LOSS 15 units (14% of bankroll) Utah State -17.5 over UNLV with 72.73% prob
LOSS 13 units
(12% of bankroll) Alabama -19.5 over Tennessee with 70.00% prob
LOSS 12 units
(11% of bankroll) Mississippi -3.5 over LSU with 68.18% prob
WIN 6 units
(6% of bankroll) Wake Forest +13.5 over Boston College with 61.40% prob + 11.45 units
WIN 6 units (6% of bankroll) Rutgers +20.5 over Nebraska with 61.11% prob + 11.45 units
WIN 6 units
(5% of bankroll) Ball State +1.5 over Akron with 60.00% prob + 11.45 units
WIN 6 units
(5% of bankroll) Michigan State -17.0 over Michigan with 60.00% prob + 11.45 units
LOSS 6 units
(5% of bankroll) Louisiana-Monroe -2.0 over Texas State with 60.00% prob
WIN 6 units
(5% of bankroll) Kansas State -10.0 over Texas with 60.00% prob + 11.45 units
LOSS 3 units
(3% of bankroll) Buffalo +5.0 over Central Michigan with 57.14% prob
LOSS 2 units
(2% of bankroll) Oregon State +13.5 over Stanford with 55.26% prob
LOSS 2 units
(2% of bankroll) Southern Mississippi +9.0 over Louisiana Tech with 55.00% prob
WIN 1 unit
(1% of bankroll) Arizona -2.5 over Washington State with 54.84% prob + 1.91 units

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Saturday October 25, 2014: Picks for Record


I start with 108 units, and went 2-1 so far for the week. 

Based on my daily picks from this morning, I will be using a scaled better's edge to calculate the percent of bankroll I will be betting on the games.



Dr. Wag's Lock of the Week

While ASU is really good this season, Washington's defence is relatively good, and this will be a factor in the game. Both team's offensive stats are about the same. For these reasons, I will pick Washington +3.5 vs Arizona State


 

All Picks for Record

17 units (16% of bankroll) Washington +3.5 vs Arizona State with 75.00% prob
15 units (14% of bankroll) Utah State -17.5 over UNLV with 72.73% prob
13 units
(12% of bankroll) Alabama -19.5 over Tennessee with 70.00% prob
12 units
(11% of bankroll) Mississippi -3.5 over LSU with 68.18% prob
6 units
(6% of bankroll) Wake Forest +13.5 over Boston College with 61.40% prob
6 units
(6% of bankroll) Rutgers +20.5 over Nebraska with 61.11% prob
6 units
(5% of bankroll) Ball State +1.5 over Akron with 60.00% prob
6 units
(5% of bankroll) Michigan State -17.0 over Michigan with 60.00% prob
6 units
(5% of bankroll) Louisiana-Monroe -2.0 over Texas State with 60.00% prob
6 units
(5% of bankroll) Kansas State -10.0 over Texas with 60.00% prob
3 units
(3% of bankroll) Buffalo +5.0 over Central Michigan with 57.14% prob
2 units
(2% of bankroll) Oregon State +13.5 over Stanford with 55.26% prob
2 units
(2% of bankroll) Southern Mississippi +9.0 over Louisiana Tech with 55.00% prob
1 unit
(1% of bankroll) Arizona -2.5 over Washington State with 54.84% prob
 

Sunday Bonus Pick

2% of bankroll Nevada with -3.0 over Hawai'i with 53.33% prob

Review of Friday October 24, 2014 Picks for Record

I started the day 110 units, and due South Alabama barely missing the -14.5 spread against Troy with a 27-14 win and Cal keeping it relatively close against Oregon 59-41, I go to Saturday with 108 units.

LOSS 3 units (3% of bankroll) on South Alabama -14.5 vs Troy
WIN 1 unit (1% of bankroll) on Cal +17.5 vs Oregon +1 unit


Saturday October 25, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks

Picks for 10/25/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona State-3.5
Washington+3.575.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UNLV+17.5
Utah State-17.572.73%43%20%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Alabama-19.570.00%37%18%
Tennessee+19.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Mississippi-3.568.18%33%16%
LSU+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Boston College-13.5
Wake Forest+13.561.40%19%9%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rutgers+20.561.11%18%9%
Nebraska-20.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Akron-1.5
Ball State+1.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Michigan+17.0
Michigan State-17.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas State+2.0
Louisiana-Monroe-2.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas+10.0
Kansas State-10.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Central Michigan-5.0
Buffalo+5.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon State+13.555.26%6%3%
Stanford-13.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Louisiana Tech-9.0
Southern Mississippi+9.055.00%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona-2.554.84%5%2%
Washington State+2.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Old Dominion+13.5
Western Kentucky-13.553.57%2%1%

Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-3.053.33%2%1%
Hawai'i+3.0

Explanation of Tables

Friday, October 24, 2014

Friday October 24, 2014 Picks for Record

I know this is late, but my picks for today would have been South Alabama -14.5 over Troy and Cal +17.5 over Oregon. I have 110 units for the day. Since the bets are so low, I will be doing Kelly betting.

3 units (3% of bankroll) on South Alabama -14.5 vs Troy
1 unit (1% of bankroll) on Cal +17.5 vs Oregon


Site Terminology and How to Read the Tables

I have had a view people ask to explain how to read my prediction tables. Using the example table from October 26, 2014 pick below, I will point out to understand what I am presenting.

Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-3.053.33%2%1%
Hawai'i+3.0

Under the team names, the visiting team is listed first followed by the home team. If the game is at a neutral site, the visiting team for the purposes of the coin toss are listed first.

The spread is the number of points a team is favoured or an underdog. The favoured team has a negative spread and the underdog team has a positive spread. In other words for spread bets, the winner of the bet is determined by the final score plus the spread on the team you picked. So, say I bet on -3.0 on Nevada, and Nevada wins the game 21 to 14. I would win the bet because the score would be 18 to 14 with the spread (21 - 3 = 18), If on the other hand, I bet on Nevada, and the final score was Nevada 9 and Hawai'i  7, I would lose the bet. On the other hand, if I bet on Hawai'i I would have won the bet because with the spread the score would be Nevada 9 and Hawai'i 10 (or 7 + 3).

The prob winner is the probability my prediction algorithm says the selected team will beat the spread. This value is selected by a proprietary algorithm I developed using college football statistics over back to the 2000 season. The success rate of the algorithm historically has been 56% which enough of an edge to allow for you to make money in the long run.

The Kelly value is amount of your bankroll you should bet on a given game if the total among of action at one time is not near 100% of your bankroll. The Kelly bet value takes in consideration the odds of bet (I assuming -110 odds unless stated otherwise) and the probability of a correct bet.

The better's edge is how much you should bet of your bankroll if the total amount of action you have at one time approaches 100% (I consider that anything over 90%). The better's edge is the probability correct bet minus the book's edge [1/(odds+1)]. I have written about this before, that research has shown that the better's edge is more optimal for when you have lots of bets at the same time and the Kelly bet if you have a few.

I hope this helps you with your handicapping.

Friday October 24, 2014: Daily NCAA Football Picks

Picks for 10/24/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Troy+14.5   
South Alabama-14.553.85%3%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon-17.5   
California+17.552.63%1%0%

Picks for 10/25/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Akron-1.0   
Ball State+1.075.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Mississippi-3.568.18%33%16%
LSU+3.5   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Old Dominion+11.062.50%21%10%
Western Kentucky-11.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Boston College-13.5   
Wake Forest+13.561.40%19%9%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Michigan+17.0   
Michigan State-17.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas State+2.0   
Louisiana-Monroe-2.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas+10.0   
Kansas State-10.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Central Michigan-5.0   
Buffalo+5.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Alabama-17.057.14%10%5%
Tennessee+17.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UNLV+17.0   
Utah State-17.056.25%8%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon State+13.555.26%6%3%
Stanford-13.5   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Louisiana Tech-9.0   
Southern Mississippi+9.055.00%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona-2.554.84%5%2%
Washington State+2.5   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
North Texas+14.0   
Rice-14.053.57%2%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona State-3.053.33%2%1%
Washington+3.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rutgers+20.0   
Nebraska-20.052.94%1%1%

 Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-3.053.33%2%1%
Hawai'i+3.0   

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Review of Thursday October 23, 2014 Pick for Record

Miami crushed it 30-10 and easily cover the -2.5 point spread on my pick. I would have won 2.72 units bring me for the year to 110 units.

Here's to my huge comeback.

Thursday October 23, 2014 Pick for Record

Starting with 107 units, I'm going to bet 2% of my bankroll or 3 units on Miami at Virginia Tech tonight.

Thursday, October 23, 2014: Picks for NCAA Football Week 9

Picks for 10/23/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Miami (Florida)-2.553.33%2%1%
Virginia Tech+2.5   

Picks for 10/24/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Troy+14.5   
South Alabama-14.553.85%3%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon-17.5   
California+17.552.63%1%0%

Picks for 10/25/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
South Carolina+17.5   
Auburn-17.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rutgers+18.0   
Nebraska-18.071.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon State+13.070.00%37%18%
Stanford-13.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Mississippi-3.568.18%33%16%
LSU+3.5   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Old Dominion+11.062.50%21%10%
Western Kentucky-11.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Akron-2.0   
Ball State+2.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Michigan+17.0   
Michigan State-17.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas State+2.0   
Louisiana-Monroe-2.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas+10.0   
Kansas State-10.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Central Michigan-5.0   
Buffalo+5.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Alabama-17.057.14%10%5%
Tennessee+17.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UNLV+17.0   
Utah State-17.056.25%8%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Louisiana Tech-9.0   
Southern Mississippi+9.055.00%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona-2.554.84%5%2%
Washington State+2.5   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
North Texas+14.0   
Rice-14.053.57%2%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Boston College-13.053.33%2%1%
Wake Forest+13.0   
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona State-3.053.33%2%1%
Washington+3.0   

Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-3.053.33%2%1%
Hawai'i+3.0   

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Wednesday, October 22, 2014: Picks for NCAA Football Week 9

Picks for 10/23/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Miami (Florida)-2.553.33%2%1%
Virginia Tech+2.5

Picks for 10/24/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Troy+14.0
South Alabama-14.061.54%19%9%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon-17.5
California+17.552.63%1%0%

Picks for 10/25/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
South Carolina+17.5
Auburn-17.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rutgers+17.5
Nebraska-17.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Mississippi-3.568.18%33%16%
LSU+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Old Dominion+11.062.50%21%10%
Western Kentucky-11.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Akron-2.0
Ball State+2.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Michigan+16.5
Michigan State-16.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas+10.0
Kansas State-10.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Northern Illinois-19.0
Eastern Michigan+19.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Central Michigan-5.0
Buffalo+5.057.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Alabama-17.057.14%10%5%
Tennessee+17.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UNLV+17.0
Utah State-17.056.25%8%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon State+13.555.26%6%3%
Stanford-13.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Louisiana Tech-9.0
Southern Mississippi+9.055.00%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona-2.554.84%5%2%
Washington State+2.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas State+3.054.55%5%2%
Louisiana-Monroe-3.0

Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-3.053.33%2%1%
Hawai'i+3.0

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Tuesday, October 21, 2014: Picks for NCAA Football Week 9

Picks for 10/23/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Miami (Florida)-3.053.33%2%1%
Virginia Tech+3.0

Picks for 10/24/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Troy+14.0
South Alabama-14.061.54%19%9%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon-18.0
California+18.052.63%1%0%

Picks for 10/25/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
South Carolina+17.5
Auburn-17.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rutgers+17.5
Nebraska-17.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas State+3.5
Louisiana-Monroe-3.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Central Michigan-4.068.18%33%16%
Buffalo+4.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Mississippi-3.568.18%33%16%
LSU+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Old Dominion+11.062.50%21%10%
Western Kentucky-11.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Akron-1.5
Ball State+1.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Michigan+16.5
Michigan State-16.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas+10.0
Kansas State-10.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Alabama-17.057.14%10%5%
Tennessee+17.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UNLV+17.0
Utah State-17.056.25%8%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon State+13.555.26%6%3%
Stanford-13.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Louisiana Tech-9.0
Southern Mississippi+9.055.00%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona-2.554.84%5%2%
Washington State+2.5

Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-4.0
Hawai'i+4.075.00%48%23%

Monday, October 20, 2014

Free College Football Stats in CSV Format from 2000 - Present Seasons

I have added stats from seasons 2000 to present on my CFB statistics download page.

This data is in CSV format and includes games from FBS games (formerly D-1).

Monday, October 20, 2014: Picks for NCAA Football Week 9

Picks for 10/23/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Miami (Florida)+1.575.00%48%23%
Virginia Tech-1.5

Picks for 10/24/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon-17.057.14%10%5%
California+17.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Troy+13.052.94%1%1%
South Alabama-13.0

Picks for 10/25/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
South Carolina+17.5
Auburn-17.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Syracuse+15.571.43%40%19%
Clemson-15.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas State+3.5
Louisiana-Monroe-3.571.43%40%19%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Central Michigan-3.568.18%33%16%
Buffalo+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Mississippi-3.568.18%33%16%
LSU+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Old Dominion+11.062.50%21%10%
Western Kentucky-11.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Akron-1.5
Ball State+1.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Michigan+16.5
Michigan State-16.560.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Texas+10.0
Kansas State-10.060.00%16%8%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Rutgers+17.0
Nebraska-17.059.26%14%7%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Alabama-16.557.14%10%5%
Tennessee+16.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Oregon State+13.555.26%6%3%
Stanford-13.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Arizona-3.054.84%5%2%
Washington State+3.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Louisiana Tech-9.5
Southern Mississippi+9.552.94%1%1%

Picks for 10/26/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada-4.0
Hawai'i+4.075.00%48%23%

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Review of October 18, 2014 Picks for Record

Pick-wise this was not a bad week for me, I went 16-15 (about chance) on the picks, but what killed me was my top 5 picks and most of my bankroll going to losing picks. Again and again betting big on losers has been killing me. Having said that, my betting strategy is mathematically sound; so, I might need to adjust my picking algorithm, but all modifications will come after this season. I'm leaving on the horse I came in with. 

LOSS 29 units (17% of bankroll) on UCF -19.5 vs Tulane
LOSS 26 units (15% of bankroll) on Central Michigan -10.0 vs Ball State
LOSS 24 units (14% of bankroll) on Tennessee +16.0 at Mississippi
LOSS 15 units (9% of bankroll) on Florida -6.0 vs Missouri
LOSS 14 units (8% of bankroll) on BYU -11.5 vs Nevada
WIN 14 units (8% of bankroll) on Middle Tennessee +1.0 vs UAB +12.72
WIN 11 units (6% of bankroll) on Massachusetts -14.0 vs Eastern Michigan + 10 units
WIN 11 units (6% of bankroll) on Georgia State +20.5 at South Alabama + 10 units
WIN 9 units (5% of bankroll) on Cincinnati -13.0 vs SMU + 8.18 units
LOSS 6 units (3% of bankroll) on North Texas -9.5 vs Southern Mississippi
WIN 3 units (2% of bankroll) on North Carolina State +18.5 at Louisville +2.72 units
WIN 3 units (2% of bankroll) on California +7.0 vs UCLA +2.72 units
LOSS 2 units (1% of bankroll) on Northwestern +6.5 vs Nebraska
WIN 1 units (1% of bankroll) on Maryland -4.0 vs Iowa +0.91 units

So, I ended up winning 99 units plus the 8 units I did not bet giving me a total of 107 units. This is quickly becoming a cautionary tale against sports betting. My betting algorithm has performed really well in the past seasons. I need to find the time to do the analysis to figure out what is going on this season.

New Betting Strategies Tab

I added a tab to my site to group together all my betting strategies posts for easier access since these are less timely and more evergreen types of posts. These strategies can also be used not only for football betting but all sports were you have multiple action at the same time.

October 18, 2014 Picks for Record

After going 2-1 for my Thursday and Friday picks I have 176 units for today's picks. Based on my daily picks, I will be using a scaled better's edge to calculate the percent of bankroll I will be betting on the games.

Dr. Wag's Forecast of the Week

UCF has been good to me this season, and my prediction software picks with a 75% probability that UCF will cover the -19.5 point spread against Tulane today. UCF's offence is too strong for Tulane's weak defence.



 

 

 

 

All My Picks for Record

29 units (17% of bankroll) on UCF -19.5 vs Tulane
26 units (15% of bankroll) on Central Michigan -10.0 vs Ball State
24 units (14% of bankroll) on Tennessee +16.0 at Mississippi
15 units (9% of bankroll) on Florida -6.0 vs Missouri
14 units (8% of bankroll) on BYU -11.5 vs Nevada
14 units (8% of bankroll) on Middle Tennessee +1.0 vs UAB
11 units (6% of bankroll) on Massachusetts -14.0 vs Eastern Michigan
11 units (6% of bankroll) on Georgia State +20.5 at South Alabama
9 units (5% of bankroll) on Cincinnati -13.0 vs SMU
6 units (3% of bankroll) on North Texas -9.5 vs Southern Mississippi
3 units (2% of bankroll) on North Carolina State +18.5 at Louisville
3 units (2% of bankroll) on California +7.0 vs UCLA
2 units (1% of bankroll) on Northwestern +6.5 vs Nebraska
1 units (1% of bankroll) on Maryland -4.0 vs Iowa

My bet total for today will be 168 units.


Review October 17, 2014 Pick for Record

Houston beat Temple 31 - 10 and easily covered the spread. My wager based on a predicted 57% correct prediction values was a 10% of bankroll bet or 16 units from my 162 units. I ended up winning 14.56 units moving my bankroll to 176 units going into Saturday, and putting me 2-1 for the week.

Logo of University of Houston Athletics.png
WON 16 units (10% of bankroll) on Houston -7.5 vs Temple ADD 14.54 units

Saturday, October 18, 2014: Picks for NCAA Football Week 8

Picks for 10/18/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Tulane+19.5
UCF-19.575.00%48%23%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Ball State+10.0
Central Michigan-10.072.73%43%20%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Tennessee+16.071.43%40%19%
Mississippi-16.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Missouri+6.0
Florida-6.064.00%24%12%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada+11.5
BYU-11.563.64%24%11%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UAB-1.0
Middle Tennessee+1.063.64%24%11%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Eastern Michigan+14.0
Massachusetts-14.061.54%19%9%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Georgia State+20.561.11%18%9%
South Alabama-20.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Cincinnati-13.059.09%14%7%
SMU+13.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Southern Mississippi+9.5
North Texas-9.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
North Carolina State+18.555.56%7%3%
Louisville-18.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UCLA-7.0
California+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nebraska-6.5
Northwestern+6.555.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Iowa+4.0
Maryland-4.054.10%4%2%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Appalachian State+7.053.33%2%1%
Troy-7.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Syracuse-6.052.83%1%0%
Wake Forest+6.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Stanford-3.552.78%1%0%
Arizona State+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Kansas State+7.052.78%1%0%
Oklahoma-7.0

Friday, October 17, 2014

October 17, 2014 Pick for Record

After yesterday's correct pick, I have 162 units for my pick. Based on the statistics for both games tonight, my algorithm sees a mismatch between Houston vs Temple where Houston's rush will be too strong for Temple's weak rush defence and has 57% of beating the -7.5 spread. Based on the Kelly betting for this game 10% of my bankroll or 16 units.

Logo of University of Houston Athletics.png 

16 units (10% of bankroll) on Houston -7.5 vs Temple 

Friday, October 17, 2014: Picks for NCAA Football Week 8

Picks for 10/17/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Temple+7.5
Houston-7.557.14%10%5%

Picks for 10/18/2014

TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
North Carolina State+17.5
Louisville-17.572.73%43%20%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Tennessee+16.071.43%40%19%
Mississippi-16.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Tulane+20.5
UCF-20.564.29%25%12%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Missouri+6.0
Florida-6.064.00%24%12%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UAB-1.0
Middle Tennessee+1.063.64%24%11%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Ball State+8.0
Central Michigan-8.059.46%15%7%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Kansas State+7.5
Oklahoma-7.559.46%15%7%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Cincinnati-13.059.09%14%7%
SMU+13.0
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Southern Mississippi+9.5
North Texas-9.557.14%10%5%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Iowa+4.5
Maryland-4.556.67%9%4%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
UCLA-7.0
California+7.055.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nebraska-6.5
Northwestern+6.555.26%6%3%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Eastern Michigan+14.5
Massachusetts-14.553.85%3%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Appalachian State+6.553.33%2%1%
Troy-6.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Georgia State+20.0
South Alabama-20.052.94%1%1%
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Syracuse-5.552.83%1%0%
Wake Forest+5.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Stanford-3.552.78%1%0%
Arizona State+3.5
TeamSpreadProb WinnerKellyBetter's Edge
Nevada+11.0
BYU-11.052.63%1%0%

Review of October 16, 2014 Pick for Record

Utah beat Oregon State 29-26 and covered the spread, and based on my 7 unit bet, I won 6.36 units based on -110 odds. That puts me at 162 units going into Friday.

 Utah Utes logo.svg

WON 7 units (5% of bankroll) on Utah -3.0 at Oregon State + 6 units

Thursday, October 16, 2014

October 16, 2014 Pick for Record

I am starting today with 156 units, and my pick for record based on my algorithm will be Utah -3.0 at Oregon State with a 5% bet of my bankroll based on Kelly betting or 7 units.

 Utah Utes logo.svg

7 units (5% of bankroll) on Utah -3.0 at Oregon State