Saturday, September 27, 2014

Picks for Record Sept. 27, 2014

Of my picks for record for the 2014-2015 NCAA college football season that with week 4, I have gone 4-2 over the spread and with my starting bankroll of $1000 increasing 68% percent to $1678.98.

 Dr. Wag's Lock of the Week

Indiana -3.5 vs Maryland with a 71.43% change of being correct and calculated 40% Kelly criterion

Indiana's strong offense has a mismatch against a relatively weak Maryland offense and this game gives the best value. The rest of the top picks are all have strong offensive mismatches and have a high probability of beating the spread.

Other Picks for Record

  • Purdue +8.5 vs Iowa also with a 71.43% probability of being correct and 40% Kelly bet
  • South Carolina -5.5 vs Missouri with a 64.00% probability of being correct and a 24% Kelly bet
  • Tennessee +17.5 at Georgia with a 60.47% probability of being correct and a 17% Kelly bet

Based on my own betting rules, I will not take put more than 30% of the bankroll on a given game so my bets are as follows with a $1678.98 starting bankroll:

$510 (30% of bankroll) on Indiana -3.5 against Maryland
$510 (30% of bankroll) on Purdue +8.5 against Iowa
$407 (24% of bankroll) on South Carolina -5.5 against Missouri
$271 (16% of bankroll, rest of bankroll) on Tennessee +17.5 at Georgia

Again, I'm betting my whole bankroll but the probability of getting all the picks wrong is low, about 1% (I got the probability from the equation (1-0.7143)X(1-0.7143)X(1-.64)X(1-.6047) or multiplying all the one minus all the probabilities together).

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